The Shrinking Chinese Market for Nike Sneakers

Marketing Viewpoint by Ruth Winett

Re-evaluate which market segments to target

Companies often under-appreciate promising segments while focusing on shrinking segments. Many US marketers ignore prospective customers 65+, according to Wall Street Journal analysis. Meanwhile, in China local sneaker brands are now outselling Nike sneakers. In both cases marketers have made assumptions about customers or prospects which haven't held up over time.

Seniors--an Undervalued Business Opportunity

TV ads, except for drug ads, are pitched at active, younger people. However, to ignore the over 65+ crowd is to miss an opportunity. People are living longer than ever, and many of the 65+ crowd have significant purchasing power and will pay extra for high quality items. Nevertheless, younger marketing professionals often overlook the over 65 crowd assuming they are frail, overly thrifty, and afraid of technology. While seniors were responsible for 14% of consumer spending in 2005, by 2022 they were responsible for 22%, according to a recent Harvard Business School article.

Divide and Conquer

Sometimes, it pays to subdivide target markets. Instead of segmenting seniors by chronological age, researchers divided seniors into four groups based on health and activity levels. Although each group has different needs and purchasing patterns, three of the groups have significant purchasing power. All three are good prospects-- If a tailored approach is used for each segment.

The Shrinking Chinese Market for Nike Sneakers

Nike‘s $180 Zoom Fly 6 trainers 6 are a durable sneaker designed for "speed training and longer distances." It has been popular in China because of its design and "American cachet." However, Chinese companies now offer similar sneakers that cost $130 or $150. As a result, Nike's revenues are estimated to fall 20% this quarter compared with last year. Buying American has also fallen out of favor in China for cars, clothing, and coffee. Pricing and a lack of innovation are also issues. Nike is restructuring and adding innovative products to increase revenues.

China's "Two Billion Feet" Do Not Guarantee Sneaker Success

As the above cases demonstrate, businesses should retest their assumptions about how each segment--or sub-segment--is performing and consider whether they need to change their marketing approach. As Nike has discovered, the behavior of a huge market segment with "two billion feet" can change. Increased competition, changes in taste and preference, price sensitivity, or external events (e.g., the Pandemic) may cause a company's biggest segment to shrink. When companies notice such shifts early on, they have more time to pivot. Nike employees have urged the company to innovate and pursue smaller "niche audiences." One alternative is to pursue untapped segments, such as seniors. Afterall, comfortable slip-on sneakers are especially popular among seniors.

Sources:

"China's 'Two Billion Feet' Are Running from Nike," Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2026, p. A1.

What Brands Get Wrong About the Over-65 Market. By Kara Baskin. Harvard Business School, Working Knowledge, May 7, 2026.

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